Our friends at HSReplay.net recently put out an article talking about all of the new Journey to Un'Goro quests and what their win rates were across different formats and ranks. It plays out pretty much how you'd expect. Rogue and Warrior are the only two that are consistently good with most of the remaining ones falling far from relevancy due to extremely low win rates.
But we're not too worried about the individual win rates here at Hearthhead. There are inevitably going to be players who want to use the quests and understand how to activate them consistently.
That's why we've teamed up with the HSReplay.net team to examine some data from Rank 5 - Legend over the past 30 days.
Each of the quest cards below now has a new Quest Contributors tab where you can find information on how players are completing their quests. You can see stats alongside them including popularity, completion percentage, the win rate when played, and the median turn the quest is completed when any of the contributing cards are played.
Rogue - The Caverns Below
The Rogue quest is a unique creature in that progress can be made with cards that don't end up completing it. Fire Fly, for example, can oftentimes get you halfway to completion even though it's actually the Flame Elementals that will finish the job for you. With the way that Hearthstone currently handles this data, we can not differentiate between something that just happened to cause progress towards Crystal Core and the actual card you end up playing four times in the same game. That said, it is still very much worth the time to consider the different methods of completion that are out there. We've personally seen much more Glacial Shards and even some Wisps as players try to help fight back against a meta that is actively optimizing against the archetype.
It may not surprise you to hear that the most popular way to complete The Caverns Below is a bunch of Flame Elemental tokens. Nearly 20% of the time this is the case and that's remarkable considering it can never get the first tick on the quest since it has to first be generated and added to your hand. Novice Engineer is a relatively distant second at 12% and this makes sense because it allows you to keep drawing cards that will likely, in turn, give you the ability to bounce it back to your hand. Fire Fly (11%), Swashburglar (11%), and Glacial Shard (9%) make up the rest of the top five.
Rogues that complete the quest on Turn 5 win more than 4% more than those that do a turn later.
Your perception might have you believe that cheap minions with Charge like Stonetusk Boar and Southsea Deckhand would be popular, but it appears as if experienced players have learned that they're much better off holding onto them and using them for burst damage than to actually activate the quest itself. That's likely a good thing too, according to HSReplay's stats, their win rates when contributing to the quest is well below 50%.
One final note, even though it's not remotely popular Wisp (1%) appears to be underrated at the moment. It sports a 51.3% win rate when earning progress on your quest and does so a full turn earlier than every other card that's used in Quest Rogue decks. If that's not enough to convince you, at the very least it's consistent, second only to Flame Elemental in completion percentage when contributing progress.
Shaman - Unite the Murlocs
HSReplay's latest article found that Unite the Murlocs doesn't fare well with a 49% overall win rate that drops to just 40% in Legend.
Many add the Water Package - Murloc Warleader, Bluegill Warrior, and Finja, the Flying Star - a group of Murlocs that has proven to be successful in the last six or so months. Player's win rates are relatively good with Warleader and Finja sitting at about 49%, but the same can't be said for Bluegill. You really want to avoid anything other than summoning it through Finja. When played from hand your average win rate will plummet to 39%.
However, this only makes up five of the ten Murlocs you'll need to summon to complete the quest. What other cards can we use to fill up that space?
Primalfin Totem seems like a solid choice as it was just released with Journey to Un'Goro and the numbers back that up as it is the only Standard card that leads to more than a 50% win rate. Call in the Finishers is the most popular and it is easily one of the ways to most consistently complete your quest given it gives you four completion ticks from only one card.
There is one landmine to avoid, however. While it may seem good given the fact that it gives you another Murloc those who play Primalfin Lookout go on to win the game less than a quarter of the time.
The good news is that same article we mentioned before found that Unite the Murlocs has a 57% win rate in Wild, higher than any other quest card in the three displayed groups - Standard (Total), Standard (Legend), and Wild (Total). Because of this, we couldn't just leave the card to wallow in its misery, so let's take a look at how you can utilize it well in Wild.
Surprisingly, the exact way it doesn't work in Standard is how it works in Wild. While it may be so at first glance, this shouldn't come as a surprise. Many of the Wild Murlocs aside from Old Murk-Eye or Sir Finley Mrrgglton are incredibly vanilla and not strong enough to make the cut in decklists above Rank 5. And it's only the former that routinely squeaks its way into lists.
All of those red percentages, designating a sub-50% win rate in Standard, suddenly swing into the green and bright green at that once you make the swap to Wild. Unless you're a Premium subscriber you won't be able to see the Legend - Rank 5 Rank Range filter that we're using, but trust us, it's not pretty in Standard.
Warlock - Lakkari Sacrifice
Honestly, it doesn't look great for Warlock's Journey to Un'Goro quest. The card itself has only been played about 93,000 times by players with Hearthstone Deck Tracker, only 3% of what the more popular Fire Plume's Heart and The Caverns Below have. It also has one of the lowest win rates out of all of the new quest cards, beating out only The Last Kaleidosaur.
Take a look at HSReplay's data and it really comes as no surprise.
Completing the Warlock quest on Turn 8 will only net you a 32% win rate on average.
The four main ways of discarding cards, including the new Lakkari Felhound, all have a sub-35% win rate when earning progress towards completing the quest. It's gotten to the point that determined fans of the archetype are even trying to make Succubus work, a card that new players tend to fall for but has long been shunned in higher ranks. HSReplay.net shows that a deck that plays her with the quest active wins only 28.5% of the time, much lower than it would be otherwise, proving that she still doesn't belong in the deck.
Some have even tried Deathwing and we'll give them credit because when games go long enough it works, but only if you don't mind the fact that you won't complete your quest until Turn 11. While many would argue that it isn't a true Discardlock at that point, it pretty much guarantees completion and is second in played win rate.
As it stands, the most common Discardlock cards have a median completion of Turn 8 which isn't promising if you check out the quest completion graph. Your win rate would increase by a full seven percent if you managed to do so just one turn earlier.
As of this post going live, these pages are now available on HSReplay.net for your perusing. We'll be back with three more classes in the next part of our series looking at Warrior's Fire Plume's Heart and a few others.
We'd like to thank HSReplay.net for giving us a peek at this data before making it available to everyone else, without them this post wouldn't have been possible.