Are the rewards worth the investment?

With the announcement of the first ever Heroic Tavern Brawl, Blizzard has revealed that the rewards for reaching the maximum of 12 wins will be very well rewarded. In total those who cross the finish line will find themselves in possession of 50 packs, about 1100 dust and gold, and three golden legendaries. But on the other side of the spectrum are those who go without winning a single game. Their reward? A single pack. Blizzard has just released a chart detailing what each tier will pay out so now the question becomes at which point is your investment worth it?

It's important to first understand how this brawl differs from the Arena which it most closely resembles. Rather than drafting a deck and playing against other players who also created their deck card by card, you're bringing a full-fledged 30-card list with you. Once it's been selected you're locked in, so understanding the meta is a crucial part of succeeding. If you can accurately bring in a counter to whatever is the most popular, or just get lucky and not run into many other decks, you can easily find yourself claiming win after win.

On the other hand, this mode isn't cheap and as a result, it's more likely that you'll encounter players that are confident in their skill level. There are two roads that the community seems to be taking as a result: diving in head first when the content releases in hopes of people being in over their heads and those that would rather wait and see how the meta shakes out so they can bring a deck that's properly prepared.

Regardless of which camp you fall into, let's see how the rewards stack up to the Arena. 

Please note: The following table assumes equal distribution of all rewards, which is known to be erroneous. The dust value is a very rough approximation. 

 

Number of Wins Guaranteed Rewards Random Rewards Avg Gold Value Avg Dust Value
0
  • One card pack
  • One random reward
  • 25-40 gold
  • 25-40 dust
  • One common card

111 gold 

(-24%)

13 dust
1
  • One card pack
  • One random reward
  • 30-50 gold
  • 25-50 dust
  • One common card

135 gold 

(-10%)

11 dust
2
  • One card pack
  • One random reward
  • 40-60 gold
  • 40-50 dust
  • One common card
  • One rare card 

130 gold 

(-13%)

14 dust
3
  • One card pack
  • 25-35 gold
  • One random reward
  • 20-25 gold
  • 20-25 dust
  • One common card
  • One rare card
  • One card pack

155 gold 

(+3%)

10 dust
4
  • One card pack
  • 40-60 gold
  • One random reward
  • 20-30 gold
  • 20-25 dust
  • One common card
  • One rare card
  • One card pack

175 gold 

(+17%)

9.5 dust
5
  • One card pack
  • 45-60 gold
  • One random reward
  • 45-60 gold
  • 45-60 dust
  • One common card
  • One rare card
  • One card pack

183 gold 

(+22%)

16 dust
6
  • One card pack
  • 75-85 gold
  • One random reward
  • 45-60 gold
  • 45-60 dust
  • One common card
  • One rare card
  • One card pack

211 gold 

(+41%)

16 dust
7
  • One card pack
  • 150-160 gold
  • One random reward
  • 20-30 gold
  • 20-25 dust
  • One common card
  • One rare card
  • One card pack

280 gold 

(+87%)

10 dust
8
  • One card pack
  • 150-160 gold
  • Two random rewards
  • 20-45 gold
  • 20-25 dust
  • One golden or regular common card
  • One golden or regular rare card
  • One golden or regular epic card
  • One golden or regular legendary card
  • One card pack

293 gold 

(+95%)

389 dust
9
  • One card pack
  • 150-165 gold
  • Two random rewards
  • 20-120 gold
  • 20-50 dust
  • One golden or regular common card
  • One golden or regular rare card
  • One golden or regular epic card
  • One golden or regular legendary card
  • One card pack

306 gold 

(+104%)

392 dust
10
  • One card pack
  • 150-185 gold
  • Two random rewards
  • 65-125 gold
  • 65-95 dust
  • One golden common card
  • One golden or regular rare card
  • One golden or regular epic card
  • One golden or regular legendary card
  • One card pack

323 gold 

(+115%)

411 dust
11
  • One card pack
  • 195-210 gold
  • Two random rewards
  • 70-180 gold
  • 60-95 dust
  • One golden common card
  • One golden or regular rare card
  • One golden or regular epic card
  • One golden or regular legendary card
  • One card pack

367 gold 

(+145%)

411 dust
12
  • One card pack
  • 215-235 gold
  • Three random rewards
  • 25-185 gold
  • One golden common card
  • One golden rare card
  • One golden or regular epic card
  • One golden or regular legendary card
  • One card pack

428 gold 

(+185%)

233 dust

 

Arena rewards stats via Gamepedia.

Now compare this to what Blizzard is offering in the Heroic Tavern Brawl:

 

Wins Packs Dust Gold Golden Legendaries Avg Gold Value Avg Dust Value
0 1 - - - 100 (-90%) 0
1 2 - - - 200 (-80%) 0
2 3 - - - 300 (-70%) 0
3 4 120 120 - 520 (-48%) 120
4 5 190 190 - 690 (-31%) 190
5 6 220 220 - 820 (-18%) 220
6 7 250 250 - 950 (-5%) 250
7 8 280 280 - 1080 (+8%) 280
8 9 310 310 - 1210 (+21%) 310
9 16 400 400 - 2000 (+100%) 400
10 16 400 400 1 2000 (+100%) 2000
11 16 480 480 2 2080 (+108%) 3680
12 50 1100 1100 3 6100 (+610%) 5900

 

Needless to say, these statistics are more than disappointing. In the Arena you break even at three wins, you're getting your 150 gold's worth. At seven you'll find yourself able to double your investment and at 12 you almost triple it! 

For Heroic Tavern Brawls however, you don't break even until you reach seven wins which will be incredibly difficult. Even more perplexing is that it shows the rewards fail to scale very well at all between nine and 11 wins. Sure you're earning golden legendaries, but your gold investment sees little to no increase. Admittedly, it's astronomical if you manage to cross the finish line, but most players will likely focus on how close they were and not be happy with where they finished. 

And keep in mind that you have to have a fantastic win-rate to even get close to accomplishing this. Even the best Hearthstone players in the world can't manage to win more than 66% of games they play.

We understand that Blizzard doesn't want to lose a ton of money on this, hence the limit of five total chances per player, but the fact that being able to achieve infinite runs, something that only great players can achieve in Arena by averaging at least seven wins isn't even possible here unless you achieve a perfect run every time since so much of the rewards prior to then have been transferred away from gold itself.

For a better idea of what's going on here, we have a few charts showing how the curves differ. Anything that references percentages of dust is converting it into gold. For example, 10% dust means that 100 dust is worth 10 gold, 25% equates 100 dust to 25 gold.

Graphs courtesy of the HearthSim community.

Looking at everything the answer is a resounding "No." Unless you're routinely a Legend player, chances are you won't have nearly high enough win rate to even break even, let alone earn a profit. Of course, we can't decide for you whether you'll try your hand at it or not, but you should at least be aware of what you're getting yourself into.

We applaud Blizzard for trying something new and we're sure they'll continue to iterate on this as time goes on, but for now we can't see this brawl ending well except for a few among the most elite players.